Ray Dalio and Thomas Friedman discuss China’s Confucianism way of thinking and how it affects China’s foreign policy. China views itself as a family and its country as an extended family. Confucianism is a top-down, hierarchical philosophy based on strict parenting. They focus on mutual respect between those who are more powerful and those who are less powerful. China is not out to conquer the world, and China’s rise to power was a result of a clear policy laid down by Deng Xiaoping.
Deng Xiaoping shifted towards a more autocratic approach due to the challenges faced by China, including the risk of democracy becoming anarchy during difficult times. However, the decision-making process in China is very top-down, which makes it difficult to run the country effectively, as it requires almost complete control from the top. Additionally, people are fearful of making decisions, and there is now a great world conflict, which is having an effect on Chinese companies, making them consider setting up businesses outside of China. Meanwhile, countries such as Russia are struggling due to cultural problems with corruption, disorder, fragmentation, and a lack of creativity and technological development. He also mentions India as a winner in the competition between China and the United States due to their low cost of an educated person, low level of indebtedness, and advances in technology development.
Friedman notes the limitations of China’s AI due to their two to four-year delay in chip development and the barrier of information that their impermeable bubble creates. Dalio emphasizes the next 18 months to two years will be a period of great disorder due to the ongoing tightening of financials and not seeing the consequences.
Polling data shows that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has a higher favorability rating than both President Biden and former President Trump. They also mention that podcaster Joe Rogan believes the Democratic Party establishment stands to lose if Kennedy were to become President due to the potential turnover within government jobs. However, the hosts note that Kennedy is still part of a political dynasty and has ties to the Democratic Party, despite his outsider status.
The Republican crowded field may make it more likely for Trump to become the nominee. The speakers also note that with the focus on Trump in the news cycle due to his legal issues, other candidates like DeSantis would have a difficult time gaining the attention needed to overcome the gravitational pull of Trump even with the policies they are implementing.
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https://assets.realclear.com/files/2023/06/2201_fomc.pdf
June FOMC Meeting: Saying They Will If They Have To, But Hoping They Won’t Have To? › The FOMC made no change to the Fed funds rate target range, leaving the mid-point of the target range at 5.125 percent › The updated dot plot implies a terminal Fed funds rate target range mid-point of 5.625 percent, up 50 basis points from the March edition It’s hard to imagine an instance in which a unanimous decision has come amid a division as sharp as that exhibited by the FOMC at their June meeting. The median projection shows an average Q4 2023 unemployment rate of 4.1 percent, down from 4.5 percent in the March projections, but what stands out is that the median projection shows an average Q4 2024 rate of 4.5 percent, a meaningfully larger increase from 2023 to 2024 than shown in the March projections.
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