Category: Recession
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Lehman Bros
Wall Street during the early 2000s, with a focus on Lehman Brothers, one of the oldest and most aggressive investment banks. The mortgage industry saw significant growth due to securitization and government encouragement of homeownership, leading to the bundling and selling of mortgage contracts to institutional buyers worldwide. Lehman’s executives, such as Anthony Fry and…
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Fed Cuts?
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America’s Economy
“Why JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Is Skeptical of an Economic Soft Landing | WSJ” YouTube video interview, Dimon expresses his concerns about the economic outlook, citing potential inflation, higher interest rates, and geopolitical tensions as significant threats. He is cautious about a soft landing and shares his thoughts on the infrastructure bill and Jerome Powell’s…
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Gundlach’s 2024 Predictions
Jeffrey Gundlach discusses the most surprising things he observed in 2023. He was surprised by the continuation of the market’s momentum in consumer spending despite the high interest rates on credit cards. He also commented on the surprising drop in the commodity price complex, including the issue with the Mid-East oil and the slowing global…
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A Serious Message From Buffett
Warren Buffett’s recent decisions to sell stocks (33B in last 3 quarters) and increase cash reserves ( to$147B), combined with Michael Burry’s options bet against the market, suggest concerns about a possible recession in the US economy. Factors such as persistent inflation, high gas prices, global instability, the AI boom, troubles in commercial real estate,…
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Short Selling, Hope, and Reddit
Marije Meerman’s final chapter in her series on trading discusses the challenges and risks of short selling in the financial market. They point out that while being proved right as a short seller is possible, it can also be a lonely and daunting task. Ultimately short selling is just a small part of the larger…
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This Man Saved the U.S. From Ruin
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Should the fed declare victory?
Jeff Gundlach notes Import and Export prices, are looking encouraging. However, he also mentions that these prices are currently in negative double digits compared to previous years, indicating disinflationary pressure. Gundlach believes that the massive stimulus and economic distortions from 2020 and 2021 have led to inflation, which is still bubbling through the system. He…
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Car inflation….
One factor is the high demand for affordable transportation, which led to older cars becoming valuable commodities instead of being scrapped. As a result, there are fewer average cars available for the middle class. The high-price, high-margin models received first priority and pick of the limited semiconductors supply sourced from China. Car manufacturers and dealers…