Category: Bitcoin
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“Never Short a Cult”
Steve on bubbles, risk, and revenue “projections”.
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BTC Debate
Bitcoin Treasury CompaniesBitcoin treasury companies like MicroStrategy use leverage and equity issuance to increase their Bitcoin per share, creating a recursive flywheel that can unravel quickly when sentiment changes MNAV (Market Value of Bitcoin compared to Enterprise Value) is a key metric for arbitrage, with extreme values indicating potential for shorting, but its correct value…
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To Short or Not to Short
Market Speculation and Valuation 🚀The S&P 500 trading at 23 times next year’s earnings is extremely overextended, signaling potential market overvaluation and speculative behavior. 💡Earnings mean reversion poses a significant risk, as historically high corporate margins could halve earnings if they revert to mean levels. 🎢The MNAV premium in Bitcoin, currently at 2.25x, has historically reached 300% before collapsing, indicating extreme retail speculation and market…
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Live…From Jail
Sam Bankman-Fried shares his two-year experience in MDC Brooklyn, describing the prison environment as dystopian. He reflects on the psychological challenges of confinement, the difficulties accessing legal resources during his trial, and the limited engagement in daily activities that impede his mental well-being. Bankman-Fried discusses his disconnection from the digital world and the complexities of…
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“I’d prefer crypto to have some intrinsic value.”
Martin Shkreli expresses significant skepticism regarding Michael Saylor’s enthusiastic promotion of Bitcoin, labeling it as implausible and highlighting BTC as a possible hedge to short MSTR. While acknowledging Bitcoin’s increasing institutional interest, he notes a disconnect with the average investor and underscores the need for more user-friendly transaction platforms. Shkreli conveys a bearish outlook on…
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MicroStrategy
Andrei Jikh discusses the complex financial strategy that allows Michael Saylor to borrow public money to buy bitcoin. “MicroStrategy: The Infinite Money Glitch That’s Breaking Wall Street” explores MicroStrategy’s remarkable stock performance, which has surged over 500% in 2023 and nearly 2600% over five years, largely due to its strategic pivot under CEO Michael Saylor…
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Chaos Kings
Scott Patterson’s Chaos Kings, Part 1″ YouTube video, Scott discusses his latest book inspired by Nassim Taleb and Martin Baum’s experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic. Taleb, known for his Black Swan theory, earned significant profits from Universa , his hedge fund, during the market crash. The speakers debate the existence of market timing and Universa’s investment strategy,…
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BTC as Money?
Michael Saylor makes the case that Bitcoin should not be considered a currency due to its lack of legal tender status. He explains that using Bitcoin as a currency would result in added costs and complex accounting transactions due to its taxable status. Saylor also highlights that currencies are regulated by nation-states, and the advantages…
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Bianco on Risk