Category: Bonds
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Tom on Tariffs
Interesting talking points from Fundstrat’s Tom Lee Thinker Are Tariffs Inherently Inflationary? Rationale Hayek Yes (systemically) Tariffs distort price signals and cause misallocation—even without broad CPI inflation Keynes Maybe (contextual) Depends on demand, employment levels, and slack capacity Friedman No (not without money growth) Only money supply growth causes sustained inflation Tom Lee No (corporate…
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Borrow to Pay
An explanation of how debt fueled spending makes world turn and what happens when lenders stop lending.
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Debate
Larry Summers critiques the current tariff strategies, comparing them to dangerous work with a sledgehammer on a sensitive global economic machine. He highlights that various tariffs remain in place, including significant structural ones, and discusses the potential economic damage estimated by market reactions, suggesting a loss of around $30 trillion. Summers warns that these tariffs…
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In Bessent’s Words…
Bottom line: rate cuts, banking deregulations, or any kind of stimulus package are not coming anytime soon Bessent’s interview with Tucker Carlson reaffirmed a lot of views that many of us already held—but I think it’s worth highlighting a few key points that are particularly relevant. First, they’re 100% serious about addressing the wealth imbalance.…
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In Good Company
Stan Druckenmiller discussing various aspects of the financial markets, focusing on inflation, the Federal Reserve ‘s strategies, investment decisions, trading experiences, and advice for aspiring individuals in the industry. Druckenmiller expresses concerns about potential risks from premature declarations of victory over inflation and discusses the implications of his personal investment strategies, including the importance of being forward-looking…
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What’s Going to Happen?
“Who knows what these polls even mean. No one even responds to them anymore.” Stanley Druckenmiller expresses his concerns about the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy, drawing parallels to his 2021 opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal where he warned the Fed was “playing with fire” due to their commitment to forward guidance. Druckenmiller…
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Bridgewater Outlook
Bridgewater Identify the Major Issues Facing Investors in the Years Ahead,” the speakers discuss various challenges investors will encounter in the coming years, including the sustainability of US exceptionalism, the US dollar’s strength, long-term bonds, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and China’s economy. US exceptionalism, driven by factors such as a large domestic market, responsive government policies, and…
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City Debt Bubble?
https://www.truthinaccounting.org/news/detail/financial-state-of-the-cities-2024
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Gundlach’s 2024 Predictions
Jeffrey Gundlach discusses the most surprising things he observed in 2023. He was surprised by the continuation of the market’s momentum in consumer spending despite the high interest rates on credit cards. He also commented on the surprising drop in the commodity price complex, including the issue with the Mid-East oil and the slowing global…
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Investors stopped buying…