Category: DEBT
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The Thiel Experience
I’m not sure if Thiel is at the same level of Bond villain as Elon or Sam Altman but this interview was entertaining at 1.5x. Peter Thiel and Joe Rogan discuss various topics including Thiel’s contemplation of leaving California and the country, the US budget deficit, the paradoxical nature of California’s economy, and the history…
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With Flying Colors…
The spectacular results of the Federal Reserve’s stress tests on the eight largest banks. Every single one of the top 31 banks passed the tests despite holding more consumer credit card loans and corporate debt, with elevated delinquency rates and retail giants reporting that consumers are tapped out. The Fed also performed an exploratory analysis…
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Debt or Defense….
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Chief of Payment for Order Flow
Ken Griffin, the CEO of Citadel, discusses his history, market research, and the current state of the US economy with Norges Bank Investment Management. He expresses concern over the economy being near full employment with inflation around 3%, while the government continues to engage in massive spending. Griffin argues that this spending binge leaves the…
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JPMORGAN Outlook Q2
Via their Q2 update: https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets
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Is China Really Imploding?
Peter Zeihan has predicted China will collapse as a political entity within a decade or two, possibly as early as 2050. Joeri Schasfoort argues that the predictions are not based on solid arguments but are purely sensationalist meant to get views. The video addresses Mr. Zeihan’s arguments regarding China’s economic decline and highlights the importance…
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Outlook for the Economy
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China’s Debt Problem
The debt problem is so severe that it is significantly greater than the 23 trillion total debt held by the country’s national government, and there are concerns that the debt burden could reach 360% of China’s GDP. The debt problem is compounded by deflation, which is causing goods and services to become cheaper in China,…
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Evergrande Disaster
China’s property collapse, particularly with Evergrande, can be attributed to the country’s one-child policy, declining birth rate, and faulty population data. Evergrande’s growth strategy of borrowing money for land acquisition and selling homes before they were built resulted in massive debt for the company. Evergrande has over $320 billion in debt, making it the most…
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Dalio
Ray Dalio, in his talk at the All-In Summit, focuses on the rise and fall of nations and the changing world order. He highlights the importance of studying history to understand the patterns and drivers of societal shifts. Dalio identifies three significant factors that are shaping the current world order: debt and money creation, internal…