Category: Federal Reserve
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Giving Themselves a Pat on the Back…
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester acknowledges that there has been stronger growth than expected, along with lower inflation and higher long-term rates, which could put downward pressure on inflation. She believes that under-tightening would be a worse mistake than over-tightening and emphasizes the importance of monitoring the economy and achieving a soft landing. Mester expects…
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This is why the world has gone crazy….
This video explains opinions of the effects of monetary policies in Japan, China, and Hong Kong. It explains the role of quantitative easing (QE) in Japan and its effectiveness, as well as the impact of the European sovereign crisis on the Chinese economy. The importance of capital influx and trade deficits in funding industrialization is…
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Public vs. Private
Ray Dalio’s thoughts on the ongoing transfer of wealth….the link below is worth looking at just for the charts The economy is not reacting to the Fed’s tightening in the usual way, as evidenced by the data in the charts. The shift in wealth from the public sector (central government and central bank) and government…
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“Survive ’til 25?” Barry Sternlicht
Starwood founder and real estate investor Barry Sternlicht discusses various topics, including his thoughts on the current state of the real estate market and the potential impact of artificial intelligence. He criticizes the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates too quickly, resulting in vacant office buildings. Sternlicht predicts a recession but hopes it will be…
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Should the fed declare victory?
Jeff Gundlach notes Import and Export prices, are looking encouraging. However, he also mentions that these prices are currently in negative double digits compared to previous years, indicating disinflationary pressure. Gundlach believes that the massive stimulus and economic distortions from 2020 and 2021 have led to inflation, which is still bubbling through the system. He…
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Bianco Predicts…
The Magnificent Seven stocks (FANG stocks, plus Tesla, Microsoft, and Nvidia) have contributed significantly to the overall market gains. Bianco attributes their success to the hype around artificial intelligence and the rollout of new technologies. However, he also notes that the performance of the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500 has been less impressive,…
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Soft Landing
Mohamed El-Erian, former CEO and current academic and economic adviser, thinks that a soft landing narrative in the economy, combined with *money on the sidelines*, is driving the current rally. El-Erian acknowledges the bearish sentiment among investors but believes good earnings numbers could bring some back. *reminder…there is no such thing as money on the…
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Blackstone forecasts….
Blackstone CFO Michael Chae sees inflation trending down and economic resilience. However, he also highlights the challenges of the cost of capital and the availability of capital, which are affected by factors like short rates, quantitative tightening ($1T annually), and credit contraction. As a result, Blackstone expects the Fed to deliver a slowdown to the…
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2 Broke Everyone
*when you control the printing press (and there is sufficient demand)…you can do anything you want*
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Econ 101?
Senator Kennedy questions Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell about inflation and capital requirements for banks. **Powell explains that we had very little inflation for 25 years** and that inflation depends on whether tax increases or spending cuts are part of a congressional budget plan. If there were no spending cuts, he believes there would be…