Category: forecast
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CPI and PPI Market Reactions
Some excellent analysis by Russell Rhoads https://russellrhoads.substack.com/p/cpi-ppi-plus-big-box-retail-earnings
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Board of Changemakers: FII
The main themes outlined in the video include the challenges and opportunities posed by the shift towards renewable energy, technological trends impacting productivity and economic growth, the need for hard-nosed leadership in navigating real-world issues, and the potential challenges facing various industries, such as banking and finance, and commercial real estate. The video also touches…
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Fireside Chat with Legends
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Rates Will Come Down
Starwood Capital Group CEO Barry Sternlicht discusses his beliefs about the current state of the US economy and the Federal Reserve’s handling of the global shutdown caused by the pandemic. He notes that most asset classes, except for US office space, have seen “stable fundamentals.” He attributes the slowed performance of office spaces to a…
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Total War: Taiwan, USA, and China
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Peace, Love, And Understanding…not
Jeffrey Gundlach discusses the theme of peace, love, and understanding, relating it to the current social atmosphere. He mentions the lyrics of a song by Nick Lowe, covered by Elvis Costello, that he feels captures the mood of society today. Gundlach discusses the potential for a recession based on the inverted yield curve. He explains…
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Tom Lee Says Buy in a Risk Off Environment
Tom Lee shares some insights on the potential impact of the Federal Reserve’s decision to stop raising rates. While some believe this could lead to further stock market decline, Lee suggests it may trigger a risk rally and actually cause a stock market rally. He emphasizes that the Fed’s decision does not necessarily mean they…
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Grantham says “only invest outside the US”
Jeremy Grantham shares his insights on market bubbles, his investment strategy, and his concerns about the climate crisis in this interview. He emphasizes the role of human nature in creating bubbles, with people driven by the fear of missing out on wealth. Grantham also highlights the importance of recognizing human nature in market behavior and…
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A Serious Message From Buffett
Warren Buffett’s recent decisions to sell stocks (33B in last 3 quarters) and increase cash reserves ( to$147B), combined with Michael Burry’s options bet against the market, suggest concerns about a possible recession in the US economy. Factors such as persistent inflation, high gas prices, global instability, the AI boom, troubles in commercial real estate,…
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El Niño Vs La Niña
Reminder! https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/el-nino-event-development-noaa-advisory-forecast-winter-weather-impact-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ Typically there is a phase change around every 1-3 years. El Niño anomaly is growing rapidly, with a strong seasonal impact already seen in the forecast as we head into Fall and Winter 2023/2024 Based on the latest data, NOAA has released an El Niño advisory showing a rapidly growing El Niño anomaly.…