Category: Inflation
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Tom on Tariffs
Interesting talking points from Fundstrat’s Tom Lee Thinker Are Tariffs Inherently Inflationary? Rationale Hayek Yes (systemically) Tariffs distort price signals and cause misallocation—even without broad CPI inflation Keynes Maybe (contextual) Depends on demand, employment levels, and slack capacity Friedman No (not without money growth) Only money supply growth causes sustained inflation Tom Lee No (corporate…
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Borrow to Pay
An explanation of how debt fueled spending makes world turn and what happens when lenders stop lending.
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La Disgrazia
Budget deficits of appx 8% of GDP a year are a problem for Friedberg. He suggests pausing all new spending and reducing all spending to pre covid levels.
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Fed Chair vs. The World
Speech starts at 10:45 Jerome H. Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, addresses the Economic Club of Chicago, discussing the current economic outlook and the Fed’s dual mandate of maximizing employment and ensuring price stability. Powell outlines the resilience of the U.S. economy despite heightened uncertainties, acknowledging challenges arising from trade policy changes, inflation concerns linked…
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Debate
Larry Summers critiques the current tariff strategies, comparing them to dangerous work with a sledgehammer on a sensitive global economic machine. He highlights that various tariffs remain in place, including significant structural ones, and discusses the potential economic damage estimated by market reactions, suggesting a loss of around $30 trillion. Summers warns that these tariffs…
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“Italians make the pasta, and the Swiss make the watches…”
“Normally we think we know what’s gonna happen in the future. We normally assume the future will look mostly like the past…and usually it works because the world doesn’t change that much…the world has been shook up like a snowglobe by the events of the past few days…this is in flux…even if you know what…
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Anatomy of a Bear
“National Capitalism & Death of the International Monetary System” presents an opinion on China and its impact on global investment strategies. The dialogue covers the historical trajectory of the international monetary system since the Bretton Woods era, underscoring China’s role in maintaining low inflation and influencing U.S. monetary policies through its currency interventions. The conversation highlights…
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In Good Company
Stan Druckenmiller discussing various aspects of the financial markets, focusing on inflation, the Federal Reserve ‘s strategies, investment decisions, trading experiences, and advice for aspiring individuals in the industry. Druckenmiller expresses concerns about potential risks from premature declarations of victory over inflation and discusses the implications of his personal investment strategies, including the importance of being forward-looking…
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USA Facts (w/Steve Ballmer)
In the “Just the Facts About the US Economy” Steve Ballmer discusses the current state of the US economy, focusing on key areas such as inflation, employment, wages, and income distribution. The US economy experienced a significant decline in real growth due to the COVID-19 pandemic but recovered with a surge in 2021. Real GDP…
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Fed Cuts?