Category: Inflation

  • Prices Are Still Too High

    Prices Are Still Too High

    According to WSJ, many Americans continue to fixate on inflation, despite the fact that prices are rising more slowly. This discontent with inflation is weighing on President Biden’s approval ratings and his re-election hopes. Although inflation has fallen, it remains a significant concern for consumers. They are particularly sensitive to rising prices because they remember…

  • Average Car Payments Are Soaring

    Average Car Payments Are Soaring

  • Peace, Love, And Understanding…not

    Peace, Love, And Understanding…not

    Jeffrey Gundlach discusses the theme of peace, love, and understanding, relating it to the current social atmosphere. He mentions the lyrics of a song by Nick Lowe, covered by Elvis Costello, that he feels captures the mood of society today. Gundlach discusses the potential for a recession based on the inverted yield curve. He explains…

  • Tom Lee Says Buy in a Risk Off Environment

    Tom Lee Says Buy in a Risk Off Environment

    Tom Lee shares some insights on the potential impact of the Federal Reserve’s decision to stop raising rates. While some believe this could lead to further stock market decline, Lee suggests it may trigger a risk rally and actually cause a stock market rally. He emphasizes that the Fed’s decision does not necessarily mean they…

  • A Serious Message From Buffett

    A Serious Message From Buffett

    Warren Buffett’s recent decisions to sell stocks (33B in last 3 quarters) and increase cash reserves ( to$147B), combined with Michael Burry’s options bet against the market, suggest concerns about a possible recession in the US economy. Factors such as persistent inflation, high gas prices, global instability, the AI boom, troubles in commercial real estate,…

  • Giving Themselves a Pat on the Back…

    Giving Themselves a Pat on the Back…

    Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester acknowledges that there has been stronger growth than expected, along with lower inflation and higher long-term rates, which could put downward pressure on inflation. She believes that under-tightening would be a worse mistake than over-tightening and emphasizes the importance of monitoring the economy and achieving a soft landing. Mester expects…

  • Childcare Prices are OTC

    Childcare Prices are OTC

    TL;DR While overall inflation has fallen significantly since last year, families with young children still face sharp increases in one of their biggest expenses-child care. Many child-care providers closed permanently early in the pandemic, and child-care prices rose more slowly than the overall inflation rate from March 2021 to February 2023, while many Americans worked from home. Childcare inflation has picked up since then as workers returning to offices fueled more demand, pay for low-wage workers jumped amid labor shortages. Congrats to our own E and R on their new baby!

  • Brazilian Farmland Boom

    Brazilian Farmland Boom

  • Should the fed declare victory?

    Should the fed declare victory?

    Jeff Gundlach notes Import and Export prices, are looking encouraging. However, he also mentions that these prices are currently in negative double digits compared to previous years, indicating disinflationary pressure. Gundlach believes that the massive stimulus and economic distortions from 2020 and 2021 have led to inflation, which is still bubbling through the system. He…

  • COLA

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-big-will-social-securitys-2024-cola-be-96855747?mod=retirement_twitter&link=sfmw_tw The range of estimates is in line with the 3.3% COLA projected by the Social Security actuaries in the 2023 Trustees Report and well below last year’s COLA of 8.7% (see Figure 2).