Category: price to earnings
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“The norm is not the average”
S&P 500 PE ratio above 23 historically resulted in 2-2% annualized returns over 10 years, with current PE ratio at 24, indicating low expected returns for the next decade.Oaktree Capital has consistently invested in high-yield bonds for 47 years, achieving 7-8% yields comparable to 10% S&P 500 returns, but taxes reduce after-tax returns to 4-7%.…
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To Short or Not to Short
Market Speculation and Valuation 🚀The S&P 500 trading at 23 times next year’s earnings is extremely overextended, signaling potential market overvaluation and speculative behavior. 💡Earnings mean reversion poses a significant risk, as historically high corporate margins could halve earnings if they revert to mean levels. 🎢The MNAV premium in Bitcoin, currently at 2.25x, has historically reached 300% before collapsing, indicating extreme retail speculation and market…
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Siegel is a Bull
Professor Jeremy Siegel expresses optimism about the economy’s strength, despite high interest rates. The Atlanta Fed’s revised GDP estimate for the first quarter surpassing 2% is an indicator of a healthier economy. While some sectors, such as tech, may be overvalued, the majority of the market is reasonably priced at around 17 times forward earnings.…