Category: Probablility
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Probability
Howard Marks explores the concept of risk through four key points. First, he highlights that the future is uncertain, and more outcomes are possible than will occur. Second, knowing probabilities does not eliminate uncertainty, as even the most probable outcomes are not guaranteed. Third, using the analogy of rolling dice, Marks illustrates that while we…
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Meditations on Extremistan
In “Meditations on Extremistan,” Nassim Taleb discusses the concept of extreme events and their impact on various phenomena, using examples from finance, human height, and behavioral economics. Taleb emphasizes that while extreme deviations cannot be completely ruled out, they are unlikely in certain phenomena without compelling explanations based on physical processes or energy. He criticizes…